The United States
Foreign Trade Deficit/Surplus

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Trade figures for the good old U. S. A.

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Deficit for 1988 - $115,900,000,000.00
Deficit for 1996 - $111,000,000,000.00
Deficit for 1997 - $113,700,000,000.00
Deficit for 1998 - $169,000,000,000.00
Deficit for 1999 - $265,000,000,000.00
Deficit for 2000 - $375,700,000,000.00
Deficit for 2002 - $435,000,000,000.00

You must realize that this is a debt - a deficit is a debt - like any debt (including the federal budget deficit, your credit card charges), this debt must be paid by all Americans (see below).

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A closer look at the figures for 1997:

For all of 1997 (as reported by the Commerce Department)
IMPORTS of goods & services . . . $1,050,000,000,000.00.
EXPORTS of goods & services . + . $932,300,000,000.00.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Trade Deficit . = . $113,700,000,000.00.
note - figures as reported - they don't add up properly

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Deficit in goods for 1996 - $191,200,000,000.00.
Deficit in goods for 1997 - $198,900,000,000.00.

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Surplus in services trade for 1997 - $85,200,000,000.00

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1995 - the trade deficit with Japan - $59,100,000,000.00
1997 - the trade deficit with Japan - $55,700,000,000.00
1998 - the trade deficit with Japan - $64,100,000,000.00

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Japan has a TRILLION dollar trade surplus!
The Japanese 1997 merchandise (not including service) trade surplus went up by $787,000,000,000.00.
REASONS - a decline in the value of the Japanese yen on the world money market and a decrease in imports into Japan. Congress - wake up.

1997 - Japan exported 4.7 million vehicles (Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association) - this figure does not include cars manufactured by Japanese companies in foreign countries and sold around the world.

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Click the following lines to go to:
Japan
and the Japanese

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1997 - the trade deficit with China - $49,700,000,000.00

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The Constitution of the United States is the supreme law of the United States.
Within the borders of the United States, no law can be created that is contrary to the US Constitution.
Laws passed by the World Trade Organization (WTO) or any other foreign entity cannot be enforced within the borders of the United States.
So lets see what the U.S. Constitution has to say about foreign trade.
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The Constitution of the United States of America (USA)
Article One: The Congress
Section Eight: Powers Granted Congress (House & Senate)
Clause Three: The Congress shall have power to regulate commerce with foreign nations...
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What does the above mean?
Lets see.
If you have a bank checking account and I tell you that you need to regulate your checking account activities, what am I trying to tell you?
Do you think you might have to balance the account periodically?
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The United States Foreign Trade Deficit Figures:
1996 - $111.0 BILLION
1997 - $113.7 BILLION
1998 - $169.0 Billion
1999 - $265.0 Billion
2000 - $375.7 Billion
2001 - projected $351 BILLION.
I'd say that Congress is not regulating foreign trade very well.
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20,000 JOBS are lost for every BILLION dollar increase in the foreign trade deficite.
A decline in the trade deficit means that U.S. companies did better against their foreign rivals (see Trade deficit drop may be short-lived, USA Today, 22 Jan. 1998, page 3B).

No one likes a loser.

Congress - wake up.

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Whenever a country runs a foreign trade deficit, the standard of living for all of the residents of that country declines.
INTERPRETATION - costs of goods & services continue to increase - wages & income do not keep pace - residents (& domestic businesses) fall behind & cut back on spending - goods & services become less affordable (see college/university costs graphic below) within the country - companies cut back on spending & employee benefits (also see Hunger In America and Social Security & your pension/retirement).


Reference: USA Snapshots, Rising college costs hit poor hardest, USA Today, October 19, 1999, page 1A

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Another problem - foreign companies (Fuji, Honda, Sony, Toyota, etc.) opening up plants in the USA - sure, some local people may be hired at the plant, however, these foreign companies take the millions of American dollars (they earn in the form of profits) out of this country further reducing our standard of living.
Do you remember Vietnam and American Imperialism?
Do we now have Japanese Imperialism?

Amazing - American companies shut their doors - they say American workers are lazy, don't want to work - they say the unions got too powerful - American companies shut their doors, some reopened by foreign companies using the same American workers that American companies didn't want - now the PROFITS go to other countries - maybe Americans are stupid, Americans can't see that profits for the most part are significantly higher than wages paid - amazing.

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In the USA Today (U. S. monitoring Asian trade practices, by Rich Miller, Feb. 12, 1998, page 1B), it was reported that top trade official Charlene Barshefsky warned Asia's tiger economies against illegal dumping of their products in the USA and other unfair trade trade practices as they seek to claw their way out of their financial woes.
"We will certainly not look the other way if the trade is unfair."
But if it's fair, the United States should be ready to accept a bigger trade deficit to help Asia out, especially as the strong US economy can take it.
Barshefsky says her office is on "heightened alert" for unfair trade practices by Asian producers of steel, computer microcips, automobiles and other products that are in excess supply worldwide. Many of them in South Korea.
Mark Neville of consultants KPMG sees the risk of a double whammy: Asian companies DUMPING goods here, while Asian governments RESTRICT imports of U. S. Products.
"We want to be sure the trade is fair and that we minimize any disruptive impacts on WORKERS here (here being the United States)," Barshefsky says.

An explanation is not really needed.
I do not think that the United States should be ready to accept a bigger trade deficit to help Asia out.
Consider this, if measured in terms of purchasing-power parity (PPP), the tiger economies' dollar GDPs have not declined since 1996 (How big is Asia?, The Economist, Feb. 7, 1998, page 72).
PPP - takes account of variations in price levels, to measure the relative size of economies. The ppp exchange rate is the rate that equates the price of an identical basket of goods and services in different countries.
TIGER ECONOMIES - China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. DUMPING - selling a product for less than what it costs to manufacture that product.
Economic growth in Taiwan last year was 6.8 percent, spurred by a surge in MANUFACTURING. (Taiwan an oasis of Asian financial health, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Feb. 22, 1998, page E-12)

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If the United States is to retain the economic independence that was as much the goal of our Revolution as political liberty, it is extremely important that that the de-industrialization of America and the de-Americanization of industry be stopped.
A fifth of our steel,
a third of our autos,
half of our machine tools,
two thirds of our textiles and apparel, and
almost half of our radios, TV's, shoes, etc., are foreign made.
Imported manufactures have reached 53% of the United States domestic product.
Compared to the economic situation of the country before the Revolution, the situation today is much worse.

(reference: Who really owns Chrysler?, Opposing View, What's good for stockholders isn't always good for nation, by Patrick J. Buchanan, USA Today, 8 May 1998, page 13A).

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A strong dollar on the world money market allows American companies to buy raw materials and parts more cheaply abroad for use in finished products made in the USA. However, it makes our products more expensive in the world market place.

When economic growth in foreign countries increases and slows in the United States, that will cause the dollar to weaken on the world money market. When that happens, there will be an increase in manufacturing in the United States (increasing the demand for workers to manufacture those products). Please see below.

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Strong dollar throttles business
Powerful currency gives importers an edge, stifles profits
By Barbara Hagenbaugh, USA TODAY, Monday, 4 March 2002, page 1B

These are not easy times for heavy-equipment manufacturer Kendig Kneen, and he blames his woes on a green piece of paper found in his wallet: The dollar.

The owner of Al-jon in Ottumwa, Iowa, Kneen says the increase in the value of the dollar, which is now at its highest level in relation to other major currencies since 1986, is making it increasingly difficult for him to export. The dollar's strength is forcing him, for the first time in the company's 40-year history, to slash prices to compete with lower-priced foreign goods in both export markets and at home, Kneen says.

The decline in profits is also forcing him to lay off workers and put off expansion plans at the company, which makes such equipment as car crushers and balers. And even though he's seen business pick up the past few months, he says, ''Our business isn't going to turn a hell of a lot until the dollar drops.''

Manufacturers, farmers, exporters, union workers and even actors across the USA are seeing sales drop and jobs cut in large part because of the strong dollar. Some say they may be pushed out of business if something isn't done soon to stop the dollar's rise. Many have been turning up the volume on their pleas for the Bush administration to do something to weaken the dollar.

But while many economists acknowledge the groups have a legitimate gripe, they say the administration and the Federal Reserve are not likely to take action -- such as intervention or ''talking down'' the currency. That is partly because there are some benefits to a strong dollar, but mostly because it's unlikely that an attempt to weaken the greenback would work.

''It's not like the dollar is a thermostat or a dimmer switch that you can set at whatever level you want,'' says Tom Gallagher, political economist at International Strategy and Investment Group. ''There are consequences.''

A strong dollar hurts U.S. businesses in several ways: * It makes U.S. exports more expensive in relation to products made abroad. That makes it much harder for U.S. companies to sell goods abroad, a key profit impediment as companies increasingly depend on the global marketplace.

* Because foreign goods are cheaper, they sell better in the USA. That means more foreign goods compete with U.S. goods in stores at home.

* And, because U.S. businesses are having problems exporting, they end up flooding the domestic marketplace, leading to even stronger competition and lower prices.

While all of that is good for keeping inflation down in the USA, it makes turning a profit much harder.

''There is a threshold that once the dollar gets over, our customers basically look for alternatives from other sources or they just don't buy,'' says David Barge, owner of Barge Forest Products in Macon, Miss.

Like Kneen, Barge says he has had to cut prices for the first time at his softwood lumber manufacturing company. Less than one-quarter of his profit was from exports in 2001, down from one-third a few years before.

Sign of economy's strength

The dollar has risen in value by nearly 40% since mid-1995, the last trough in the dollar's value, according to Federal Reserve statistics. That rise has come as U.S. productivity gains and faith in the nation's economy have soared.

Even in 2001, the dollar rose 5%. That's amazing, considering that during that time, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates 11 times, the economy was in a recession and the Sept. 11 attacks shook confidence -- all textbook examples of what would usually cause a currency to weaken.

But economists say the USA is still the best place for investors to put their money. The world's second-largest economy, Japan, has been in and out of recession for the past decade and is facing a serious banking crisis. Some analysts say Japan is taking direct steps to weaken the yen to help boost its own exports and stem a worsening deflation problem.

Another choice, investing in the euro, is hardly ideal because many analysts consider the outlook for the new currency uncertain. They also question if the European Central Bank has been aggressive enough in tackling the continent's economic downturn to foster productivity gains on the level seen in the USA over the past decade.

''We are still the biggest magnet for investment because we still present the best prospects for economic growth,'' says Daniel Tarullo, a law professor at Georgetown University and a former assistant to former president Bill Clinton for international economics.

Manufacturing hit hardest

Manufacturing, which is heavily dependent on exports, has perhaps been the hardest hit by the strong dollar. Last year, the value of exports from the USA fell 4.6%, the first decline since 1983, according to government data.

The National Association of Manufacturers estimates that nearly 25%, or 400,000, of the factory jobs eliminated in the last 1 1/2 years in the USA can be attributed to the sharp decline in exports, which the group largely blames on the dollar's strength.

The decline in manufacturing jobs follows a long-running trend. About 13% of U.S. workers were employed by factories in 2001, down from 26% in 1971.

''(The strong dollar's) good for the economy, but it's creaming manufacturers,'' says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com. Zandi and other economists predict factories are unlikely to hire back all of the 1.6 million employees who have lost manufacturing jobs since July 2000 -- the most recent peak in manufacturing employment -- as some factories have since shut down.

But manufacturers are not the only ones who have struggled as the dollar has soared. Citrus and pistachio grower Shawn Stevenson is frustrated by the influx of foreign fruit on U.S. grocery shelves.

''We have Australian navels coming in during the summertime competing directly against our Valencia orange,'' says Stevenson, who farms 1,500 acres in Clovis, Calif., that have been in his family for three generations. Because of the strong dollar, ''They're able to bring a lot of product in here and compete against our product, and they're edging us out when it comes to retail space.''

He says the strong dollar, combined with low commodity prices and government rules, is close to driving him out of business.

''You stack these things one on top of the other and, at this point, the burden is just about unbearable,'' he says.

The Screen Actors Guild also partly blames the strong dollar for the USA's loss of television and movie revenue. SAG estimates that up to $15 billion that would have fed into the U.S. economy from all facets of the industry will go to other countries this year instead.

''Part of it has to do with the dollar exchange, which nobody can do anything about,'' SAG spokeswoman Ilyanne Kichaven says. ''So we're trying to level the playing field so we can bring production back.''

SAG is lobbying the government to offer incentives, such as tax breaks, that other countries are offering to bring filming back even as the dollar climbs.

Action unlikely

Like the actors, others have decided that there is nothing they can do to influence the dollar's value. Some companies have entered currency markets to hedge against further gains in the dollar, while others have taken steps to reduce costs to try to maintain profits.

But manufacturers have been begging the Bush administration over the past year to take action to weaken the dollar. Those calls have fallen on deaf ears, and economists predict the White House and the Federal Reserve will continue to let the markets maintain control for a variety of reasons:

* A strong dollar increases competition and therefore keeps inflation under wraps, stabilizing the economy.

* Cheaper imports benefit companies that use foreign goods to make their products by reducing input costs.

* Confidence is growing that the U.S. economy will emerge from the global slowdown far better than other nations, a belief that the USA would not want to diminish, even if it could.

* Intervening in the currency markets, which would require the United States and perhaps other countries to buy other currencies and sell dollars, likely wouldn't work. Interventions work best when a currency is already moving in the desired direction, which is not the case for the dollar, economists say.

The Bush administration has sent strong signals that manufacturers and others harmed by the dollar's strength are on their own. When Bush selected Alcoa chief Paul O'Neill as his Treasury secretary last year, some currency traders thought O'Neill's manufacturing background in the aluminum world might make him sympathetic to dollar sufferers. Not so.

''The really great-performing organizations figure out a way to do well, no matter what the circumstances are,'' O'Neill said in a recent interview with Reuters. ''They don't go around looking for some government to give them relief.''

Those kinds of comments have irked manufacturers who want O'Neill, at the very least, to acknowledge the dollar's strength, rhetoric they hope would help bring the dollar's value down a bit.

''The administration ought to back off a little bit and say it's overvalued,'' says Robert Shrouds, corporate economist at DuPont in Wilmington, Del.

But it seems unlikely O'Neill will change his tune, and economists say producers, and the economy, need to adjust to the strengthened dollar because it is likely to remain that way for some time.

In fact, the New York-based Conference Board predicts the dollar will continue to strengthen this year. And, unlike in 1985 when nations intervened to weaken the dollar, there are no other currencies today that are even remotely as attractive.

''We had several other currencies that could play the game,'' says Donald Ratajczak, former director of the economic forecasting center at Georgia State University. ''Right now, where are the alternatives?''

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You judge a government by how well it takes care of its people, not how well it takes care of its corporations or “workers in other countries.”

The Constitution of the United States: Article One, The Congress; Section Eight, Powers Granted Congress (House & Senate); Clause Three, The Congress shall have power to regulate commerce with foreign nations...

According to Merriam-Webster, regulate means to fix or adjust the amount of. Commerce means the buying and selling of commodities: TRADE.

The Constitution of the United States is the supreme law of this country. Within the borders of the US, no law can be created that is contrary to the US Constitution. Laws passed by the World Trade Organization (WTO) or any other foreign entity cannot be legally enforced within the borders of the US (especially if they are contrary to the US Constitution).

George W. Bush took the following oath of office. "I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States."

All members of the US House and Senate (Melissa Hart, Rick Santorum, etc.) took the following Oath of Office, “I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter: So help me God.”

According to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the 2005 estimated balance of foreign trade was a negative $800 billion. The 2005 estimated current account balance was a negative $829.1 billion dollars. The foreign trade deficit and current account deficit are having a negative impact on the nations economy and American workers.

According to a U. S. Commerce Department study, for every billion dollar negative increase in the foreign trade, the United States loses 20,000 jobs. Therefore, if Congress and the President would just do what the US Constitution mandates, our federal lawmakers would be able to instantly help create 16 million new jobs in the United States.

In the Preamble (an introductory part) of the US Constitution, it is written that, “We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union,…(will) promote the general welfare (the state of doing well especially in respect to happiness, well-being, or prosperity), and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity,…”

Bush and other politicians will tell you that foreign trade is good for the country by creating jobs for Americans. They are only telling you half the story.

What Bush and other politicians are not telling you is that overall, we have lost 16 million jobs as a result of this foreign trade deficit. It’s like me telling you that Penn State scored 16 points in a football game and not telling you that the final score was 56 to 16. I’m all for free trade as long as it benefits all Americans.

There are other disadvantages to a foreign trade deficit. It reduces the nation’s revenue. When more money leaves the country than comes in, that country becomes a debtor nation. To all Americans, it means that the cost of goods and services (health care, education, utilities, etc.) increase faster than our ability to pay.

America is supposed to be the land of opportunity for all. This includes opportunities for employment and advancement. However, when I read articles about unemployed Americans who want jobs but cannot find jobs, then something is wrong in the United States. When I read that 80% of all Americans live paycheck to paycheck, I realize that our government is no longer taking care of its people.

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This site will always be UNDER CONSTRUCTION

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If you have any comments or information that you might like added to this page, please e-mail the typed information to:

Nikola (Nick) Drobac
Nikola (Nick) Drobac
drobac@mailcity.com

Information may be edited before posting.

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